By Tom Niblock M.P.A. '09

Renowned China scholar and recent U.S. diplomat Thomas Christensen expressed optimism for the future of U.S.-China relations and provided advice on U.S.-China policy to the Obama administration, during a crowded Nov. 18 public lecture hosted by the Woodrow Wilson School in Robertson Hall's Dodds Auditorium.

Christensen is a Professor of Politics and International Affairs at the School and Director of the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program. He took a public service leave during 2006-2008 to serve as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs responsible for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, at the U.S. State Department.

Professor Christensen described U.S. policy toward China during the Bush administration as a “success” and expressed hope that the Obama administration would continue with the same “constructive approach” that he helped craft during his time in the State Department.

He noted that there is a consensus within the China that its influence on world affairs should increase, but that there is still debate as to how best pursue expanding that influence.  Christensen said that U.S. policy toward China should be focused on shaping the choices it will face, not on trying to contain its rise.

He cited the Strategic Economic Dialogues and the Senior Dialogues as two bilateral means by which the U.S. has tried to shape China’s choices.  The two dialogues are a series of meetings between high-level officials on both sides that take place at regular intervals where the “U.S. listens to China and presents our side as well,” he said.  

He explained the dialogues’ three underlying principles:  first, the U.S. will not try to contain China’s rise.  Second, the growth of China’s influence is not a “zero-sum game,” meaning both the U.S. and China can benefit together as China’s influence increases.  Third, the purpose of the dialogues is to move beyond the traditional U.S.-China issues of Taiwan and human rights concerns.

On specific security issues, Christensen expressed varying levels of satisfaction with China’s policies toward North Korea, Sudan, Burma, and Iran.  He credited China with playing a “leading role” in the Six Party Talks designed to peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons crisis, but he pointed to less success in China's response to international efforts to address genocide in Darfur, political repression in Burma, and emerging nuclear weapons capabilities in Iran.

On economic issues, Christensen observed that while bilateral trade deficits are generally unimportant to economists, the U.S.-China trade deficit was artificially large and there were ways to address some of the country's unfair trade practices. He stressed the importance of maintaining a constructive approach to U.S. economic relations with China with its more problematic policies, which include the artificially low value of its currency relative to the dollar, the lack of intellectual property rights, and the high level of subsidies provided to its exporters.  

For each of these policies, Christensen stressed that the best way to create change is by convincing the Chinese that changes are in their own best interest, not by threatening to protect the U.S. economy.  He warned the incoming administration to resist this impulse, which he noted is “especially tempting in hard [economic] times”.

Despite his overall optimism, Christensen noted that “big problems remain” in U.S.-China relations.  Specifically, he said that “there has not been as much progress as wished,” on human rights and religious freedom.  He also expressed dissatisfaction with a lack of transparency in China’s military modernization and the military build-up along the Taiwan Strait.

Regarding Taiwan, Christensen expressed a desire to see a “strong and moderate” Taiwan peacefully negotiating with China.  He defended the recent continuation of U.S. arms sales to the island, noting that the Taiwanese must deal with the mainland from a “position of strength”.  

Overall, Christensen credited U.S. success in East Asia to the fact that it has good relations with China, India, and Japan at the same time, and that all three countries have good bilateral relations with one another.  “Strength and moderation are needed across the region to shape China’s choices,” he said.